Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 16/0837Z from Region 2843 (S17W72). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 15/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 235 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 075
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10