Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speedreached a peak of 453 km/s at 16/0207Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/2154Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/1001Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2841 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 067
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 006/006-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15