- Status Report
- August 8, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 July 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 16/1947Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 16/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0538Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 072
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15