Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 16/0704Z from Region 2567 (N04E15). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 675 km/s at 16/0021Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/1112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4313 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 107
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/20