Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 502 km/s at
15/2102Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/0311Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/1636Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19
Jul).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 092
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10