Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/0110Z from Region 1791 (S14W08). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul,
19 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 406 km/s at
15/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1690 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jul) and unsettled to
active levels on days two and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 114
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 033/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 009/010-011/015-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/35
Minor Storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/50/50