Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 16/1945Z from Region 2929 (N08W30). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (17 Jan) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.Solar wind speed reached a peak of 642 km/s at 16/0249Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/2343Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2283 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (17 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (19 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 119
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 017/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 015/018-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/30/20