Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 15/2112Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/1850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 070
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10