Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 16/0330Z from Region 2260 (N09W86). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 485 km/s at 16/0302Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/2300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0235Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 125
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 010/012-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
