Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 January 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a long-duration C2 event
observed at 16/1923Z from a filament eruption near old Region 1650
(S31W79). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18
Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
467 km/s at 15/2142Z. Total IMF reached 6.4 nT at 16/2053Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4.0 nT at 16/1131Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 934 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels for day 1 (17 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels for days 2 – 3 (Jan 18, Jan 19).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 137
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 010/012-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 45/30/10