Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 15/2300Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/1846Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9022 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 15/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 103
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 105/105/108
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 006/005-006/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/40
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/55