Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 16/2029Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 16/1552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 16/1404Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 071
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10