Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 16/2045Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 16/0832Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 16/1326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1005 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 074
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  011/012-009/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/20/20