Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 February 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
February 16, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 February 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 375 km/s at 16/1919Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1901Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (19 Feb).

 

III.  Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           16 Feb 118

Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 120/125/130

90 Day Mean        16 Feb 151

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  005/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  012/015-010/010-006/005

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/15/05

Minor Storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/20/15

Minor Storm           35/30/15

Major-severe storm    35/25/05

SpaceRef staff editor.