Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 375 km/s at 16/1919Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1901Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (19 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 118
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 012/015-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb