Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 February 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three
(17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
440 km/s at 16/1325Z. Total IMF reached 12.6 nT at 16/1257Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10.1 nT at 16/1532Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 408
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next two days (17 and 18
Feb). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day three
(19 Feb) due to possible CME effects.

III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 103
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25