Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 294 km/s at 16/1150Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/2358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 245 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 082
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10