Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 December 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
December 16, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 15/1634Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/0040Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Dec, 17 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 071
Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 15 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 006/005-006/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/35

SpaceRef staff editor.