Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 327 km/s at 16/2045Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
16/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1425 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 070
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/15/15