Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 15/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 192 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 071
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 070/072/072
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  010/012-019/026-017/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor Storm           10/25/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/55/55