Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 December 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 16/0903Z from Region 2468 (S16W13). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 654 km/s at 16/0213Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2321Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/2320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 397 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 126
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10