Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 16/1140Z from Region 2242 (S19E11). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 487 km/s at 16/0214Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/1235Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 958 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 185
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 185/185/185
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 010/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
