Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
16/0330Z from Region 1917 (S15W50). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (17 Dec) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (18 Dec,
19 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
543 km/s at 16/0808Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2109Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/0410Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19
Dec).

III. Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 20/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 154
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 155/160/155
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 005/007-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05