Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 December 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels due to a single C1 x-ray
event at 16/2103Z from Region 1631 (N20W60). There are currently 4
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare for days one through three (17 – 19
December).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 463 km/s at
16/1937Z. Total IMF reached 9.4 nT at 16/0235Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.5 nT at 16/0827Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one through three (17 – 19
December) with a chance for active periods on 17 December.

III. Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 120
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 012/016-011/012-007/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/10