Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 16/2047Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/1936Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/2052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1338 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (17 Aug, 18 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 077
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  017/026-016/020-012/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/65/45