Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 16, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (17 Aug, 18 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (19 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 16/2032Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 16/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6711 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 Aug, 19 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 087
Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 16 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 009/006-007/008-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/25
Major-severe storm 40/05/40

 

SpaceRef staff editor.