Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 637 km/s at 16/0736Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 15/2319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 16/0642Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1325 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (18 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (19 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 086
Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 16 Aug 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 024/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 024/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 018/020-012/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor Storm 25/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/20