Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/0929Z from Region 2144 (S17W47). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 358 km/s at
16/0655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 135 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Aug, 18 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (19 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 112
Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 16 Aug 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 005/005-005/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/01/35
Minor Storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/30