Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/1456Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 654 km/s at 16/0017Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/0158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 15/2233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1233 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Apr, 18 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 122
Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 16 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 011/012-011/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/30