Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 16/1026Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/0233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/0144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1770 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 074
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr 074/074/072
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20