Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 April 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 318 km/s at 16/0549Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/0544Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6481 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Apr, 18 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 069
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  006/005-006/005-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/45