Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 16/0625Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 16/1806Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2086 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Apr, 18 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 113
Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 112/110/110
90 Day Mean 16 Apr 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 007/010-006/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/35
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/45