Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1959Z from Region 2035 (S17E11). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 345 km/s at
15/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/1953Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/1941Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 454 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Apr, 18 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 184
Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 190/190/190
90 Day Mean 16 Apr 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/05