Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 14/2118Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/0808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/0829Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 069
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/10