Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 15/0911Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/1141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/0632Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5476 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 068
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  006/006-007/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/25