Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 September 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 776 km/s at 15/0629Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/1725Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/1826Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 14/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32096 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 073
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 073/073/075
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  019/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  025/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  019/025-014/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/40