Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 14/2122Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/0129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 121 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (18 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 084
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 007/006-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/15/05