Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 490 km/s at
14/2125Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/1834Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/2002Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled levels on day one (16 Sep) with active levels likely
and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep)
with a chance for active levels.

III. Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 093
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 095/100/100
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 013/015-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/30/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 04/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor Storm 35/35/25
Major-severe storm 45/25/10