Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 15/1202Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0012Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 679 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Oct), quiet levels on day two (17 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 070
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  008/008-005/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/40