Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 15/1531Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 15/0122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/1546Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4117 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (16 Oct, 17 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 085
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 020/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 013/018-013/015-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/20