Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 15, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 15/1838Z from Region 2434 (S10E48). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 523 km/s at 15/0730Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/1611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/1619Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8141 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 30/40/40
Class X 01/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 107
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 105/110/120
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 016/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 014/018-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/15
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/30/20

SpaceRef staff editor.