Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 October 2014

By SpaceRef Editor
October 15, 2014
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to

15/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. The period began above

the M1 threshold, while in recovery from the M2 flare at 14/2121 UTC,

from a region around the East limb. No other flares occurred during the

period. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16

Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.

Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak

speed of 580 km/s at 15/0040Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/2213Z. The

maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 14/2344Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet to

unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).


III.  Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct

Class M    20/20/20

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           15 Oct 126

Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 130/140/150

90 Day Mean        15 Oct 130


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  012/017

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  013/014

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  013/012-008/008-007/008


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/25/25

Minor Storm           10/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    40/30/30


SpaceRef staff editor.