Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
15/0507Z from Region 1865 (S21W21). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct,
18 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
578 km/s at 15/2036Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/0108Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0053Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 284 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Oct, 17 Oct) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 125
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 012/015-015/018-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/30/15