Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 November 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
November 15, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 15/2056Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/1927Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1833Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (18 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 070
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 010/012-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 40/25/10

SpaceRef staff editor.