Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 14/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1448 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 068
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/20