Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 15, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 467 km/s at 14/2154Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2086 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 106
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 104/102/100
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 008/008-008/008-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/25
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/35

SpaceRef staff editor.