Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 November 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 15/2046Z from Region 2209 (S15E45). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 630 km/s at 15/0238Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1941Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/0021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 206 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 161
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 160/160/165
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 015/020-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 55/40/40
