Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/0229Z from Region 1899 (N06E35). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 412 km/s at
15/1513Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/1917Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 790 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one through three (16-18
Nov).

III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 20/15/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 178
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 180/180/175
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 009/012-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/30/20