Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 Nov 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/0437Z from Region 1610 (S21W50). Analysis of SDO HMI imagery
suggested Region 1610 and 1614 (N17E18) maintained maintained their
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics during the period. Region 1614
remained the largest of the 7 spotted regions on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov),
with Regions 1610, 1614 and 1613 (S24E08) most likely to produce
moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 488 km/s at
15/0453Z. This observation was consistent with the continued influence
of a weak, negative polarity, coronal hole high speed stream. Total IMF
reached 5.7 nT at 14/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -2.2 nT at 15/1840Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (16 Nov, 17
Nov, 18 Nov) as effects from the current coronal wane while a new,
positive, coronal hole becomes geoeffective on days 2 and 3 (17-18 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 141
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 021/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 007/008-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/35/35