Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 15/0815Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 140 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (16 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 May) and quiet levels on day three (18 May).

III. Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 154
Predicted 16 May-18 May 154/152/152
90 Day Mean 15 May 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 013/014-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 45/25/20