Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 609 km/s at 15/1854Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 15/1400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 15/1005Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 May) and active to major storm levels on days two and three (17 May, 18 May).

III.  Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 071
Predicted   16 May-18 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        15 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  014/020-021/030-021/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           25/40/40
Major-severe storm    05/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/20